Using transparency to regulate business

For a while I've regarded the use of transparency as a better way to regulate than brute force of law. In an interesting piece on lateral thinking in economics Ross Gittins, discusses the work of Dr Guren of Lateral Economics.

Many of the ideas proposed by Dr. Guren are not really new or innovative, if you've been following economics and the open movement. Taxing "bads" as opposed to "goods" are known as Pigovian Taxes. What I did find interesting was Dr. Guren's idea around improving health & safety in the workplace by this method:

Most workers care about workplace safety, but typically lack information about it when applying for a job. Yet the workers' compensation premiums paid by firms provide a good proxy for their past occupational health and safety performance.

We should publish them, Dr Gruen says, and require that existing and prospective employees are provided with information on how they compare with economy-wide and industry-wide average performance.

I already think that salaries should be published by each company. Publishing the salaries and benefits across the organisation, will promote competition between companies for labour. One of the key problems with the labour market has moved beyond flexibility, to information asymmetry. A real market can't exist with this asymmetry whether a market is flexible or not.

But the idea of publishing H&S premiums has got me wondering what other internal information should be published to make companies more transparent and so reduce the amount of regulation and enforcement action needed in the economy?

Off the top of my head I can think of:

• Number of harassment claims filed
• Amount of energy KWh used by the company

The more simple and available the information the easier it is to counter arguments about cost and burden. The use of open information would have a profound effect on the economy and the regulation of business.

Tags: Open Source, Policy

What will be the effect of an Open Xohm platform?

Sprint has announced the opening of the Xohm as a platform through APIs and an SDK. Ostensibly it will allow device manufacturers, application developers and 3rd party service providers to build items which take advantage of the Xohm networks in ways that are difficult and expensive currently.

It is, perhaps, the first example of a telco taking advantage of it's relationship with it's customers or put another way following the Telco2 strategy. It will also allow applications and services to be developed that are mere dreams (if they have been drempt at all) currently. Think games or VoIP services that ask for better quality service for the duration of usage rather than all the time or buying or buying something by snapping a barcode where the bill is attached to your access bill and delivered to your address by Amazon's fulfilment service from an address supplied by Sprint.

It is the next logical step from Google's push for open access to devices and applications for 700Mhz. This could have a rather interesting effect on wireless/mobile market direction. It is hard to compete against open with closed.

I foresee this changing the dynamics of the 700Mhz spectrum usage as well. The 700Mhz was important as it was nationwide and provided better in-door coverage. The in-door coverage, I think, is really a non-starter as by the time the 700Mhz network is established, short range WiMax access points will be fairly well distributed and many in-door areas will be able to roam from WiFi to WiMax. Femtocells and devices that can roam across different wireless networks will also be in abundance.

Sprint's move has made it very likely that who ever the owner of the 700Mhz spectrum is, they are going to have to follow the open access provisions and even go the same distanced to providing an open platform. Now wouldn't it be interesting if Google has won and decided to use the 700Mhz for a WiMax network that follows the Sprint Xohm platform strategy? Makes Sprint a likely candidate for building out Google's network if they have won.

Tags: Sprint, Xohm, Google, 700Mhz, Wireless, WiMax, Disruption, Telco2

Meddling polies should focus on what matters

I understand the need for regulation and laws, but it annoys me when polies meddle in areas for the sake of being seen to do some thing. The UK government is threatening legislation to penalise ISPs for not blocking privacy. The really idiotic thing is the UK government has already said their idea falls afoul of UK and EU data privacy laws. So what's going to happen? The government will pass the law, the ISPs will challenge in the UK and EU and the law will be rule illegal. So back to drawing board with the only accomplished is a lot of money spent on lawyers and the government been seen to do something.

Beyond the technical hurdles, there is also the political fallout from the law being overturned plus the damage this will do to a government tettering on the brink. I wonder if this new push has arisen when someone pointed out wholesale kicking off of downloaders is likely to lose Labour votes.

To me, this is massive over-reaction to a relative minor problem. Stopping downloading of content is not going to be a saviour of society nor cure its ills. There are far more pressing problems in the economy that WILL do massive amount of damage to peoples lives - credit crisis, stagflation, deep recession - that the government should be worrying about. Protecting an outdated business model is NOT the governments job.

This legislation has the air of desperation. Of a government looking down a yawing canyon of irrelevance and trying deperately to be seen to be doing something, anything.

Fiddling while Rome(London) burns.

Tags: UK Government, UK, ISPs, Policy

Driving Real Change at Microsoft - Get Rid of Win32

Microsoft announced yesterday that it was releasing API and Client/Server interoperability details. Coming on the heals of the Microhoo! deal and Bill Gates publicly saying Microsoft is after the Yahoo engineers it must seem like Microsoft is going all open and friendly. But that misses a big point. Changing culture, particularly one ingrained and strong as Microsoft's, is not going to be as easy as publishing specs and adding a load of Yahoo engineers.

It is possible to change the culture for the better and the Yahoo engineers can play a big role, but they can't do it on their own.

The catalyst for the change is dropping the Win32 kernal and going with a Linux/BSD kernal. The Yahoo engineers then become evanglists and mentors for the adoption of the open-source kernal. The combination of the two provides a greater probability for success than either on its own. In a previous post I looked at why using a Linux/BSD kernal was a good idea so I won't go into the details. The difference between now and then is that having the Yahoo engineers makes the probabilty of sucess so much greater and faster.

Dropping the W32 kernal would be at least as radical shift in corporate strategy as Microsoft's turn around in the late 1990s to the web. We know the company can do radical strategy shifts and this would be the most radical and risky. But without doing something like this Microsoft is always going to struggle in a networked world.

I would honestly like to see this happen. It would be the single biggest threat to Google's dominance by stripping away the competitive advantage that open source provides the company.

Tags: Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, OS, Open Source, Strategy, Disruption

Fighting Inflation in Australia using Super

Australia is one of the few nations in the world where the interest rates are rising and rising hard. Commodities boom, over indulgent consumption and 35 year lows in employment have pushed the economy to the limits of capacity.

The debate in Australia is about how to fight the inflation and the recurrent need for the RBA to raise interest rates to combat inflation now outside its 2-3% band. The Rudd Government has brought back fiscal policy to try and help fight inflation by aiming for a surplus of 1.5 to 2% and avoid the RBA rasing interest rates further (unlikely). Although given that for the past 5 years or so the budget surplus has always come in higher that the forecasted 1% its hard to see how a measly 1.5 to 2% is going to make much of difference. It probably needs to be 2.5 to 3%.

The otherside of the debate is how raising interest rates is a blunt policy instrument for fighting inflation, only effects third of households etc. What is missing from the debate is discussion on what other levers that could be provided to the RBA to manage the economy. In many economies there probably aren't many other levers that central banks could use. But Australia has compulsory super for a majority of employed people. The issue is to remove spending from the economy or put another way to increase savings and reducing consumption. Giving the RBA the ability to manage the percentage of income that is paid into super would give the RBA another lever to pull.

The advantages I see in using super contributions this way are;

• It increases the savings rate across a very large majority of households
• It does not directly effect the price of business investment the way interest rates do
• It is spread more evenly across the economy rather than concetrated in the 1/3 of households with morgages
• Individuals don't lose the money, it is simply redistribute to return in the future

The biggest problem I see is the mechanics of actually performing the changes. However, this is a solvable problem as it could rolled into financial packages that most if not all businesses use.

Another possible lever is to allow the RBA to change tax percentages about a median point. But I see that being an even tougher operation and also more politically hazardous. It could be a rather useful tool to have in the back pocket though.

Tags: Superannuation, Inflation, Australia

Incentives cause the [financial] rot

Umair has a new post about the financial meltdown and in particular how the very people at the centre of the meltdown are walking away with massive payments. I think there is a lot about how the very incentive system used by financial institutions are at the very core of the problem.

The incentive systems are probably the single biggest cause of the problems. These systems are designed to maximise profit - which is not the same as wealth creation. The assumption that serves as the foundation of incentive systems is that the "agents" interests need to be aligned with the "owners". An assumption that I now believe is totally invalid.

The incentive systems need to promote wealth creation and not alignment of the interests. Otherwise why will an executive take a risk that has a long term payoff but will hit short-term profitability?

So how do you fix something so broken. The first is to ditch the assumption of aligning the "agents" interest with the "owners" interest. The second is to ditch the idea that a single person at the level of CEO has much effect on the overall profitability of a company. Suddenly it gets hard to justify paying ANYONE 100m salary. Indeed, CEOs make a mockery of their own job - if the share price goes down its due to the market, but if it goes up its due to the skill of the CEO. Spot the paradox?

Can the market sort this out itself? Probably not. Too much self-interest. This leads to the requirement of regulation. The key is to regulate well but lightly. Some regulation will require the out-right banning of current practices, while others are about increasing transparancy and market efficiency.

Golden parachutes need to be banned. Why a CEO should receive money to leave a job is beyond me. The sub-prime crisis has shown this for the rort it is. Which does lead to the second requirement of having all senior management and possibly contracts above a certain value requiring the agreement of a quorum of shareholders. The current negogiation world is far to cosy.

In terms of increasing transparancy, the renumeration and contracts of senior management should be published. This works fine but it helps to have this put in perspective of the how well the company is paying its employees. So companies should be required to publish the various renumeration bands, the requirements for bonuses at these bands and the number of employees per band.

But perhaps the biggest change is to remove incentive schemes that promote short-term profit over long-term wealth creation. Most of the current methods can and are easily gamed. Whether it is EPS, dividends, profit, revenue or share price increase. Most of these items are reflective of things beyond the senior managements control. So the first step is to only use measures that are effected by senior management actions. More important is only use actions that promote wealth creation (as opposed to profit).

So what measures could be used?

• Employee productivity per unit cost
• Throughput per unit cost
• Employee statisfaction
• Revenue growth per unit of productivty
• Productivity growth per employee

And there are more. Most of these measures are harder to game but they are all measuring changes that change the long term wealth creation of the company. Funnily enough, most of these would reduce the awards of financial executives.

Incentive systems and the spiralling cost of financial executives is something that needs to be addressed. Otherwise you run the risk of societal unrest. Perhaps more importantly these spiralling costs are also a distortion of the market causing the mis-allocation of resources and dragging down GDP growth.

Throwing money at problems

One of my bug bears is people insisting that throwing money at a problem will solve it. Health is a big example. Well want to know what happens when you throw pots of cash at a problem? Just look at the outcomes of the NHS. Despite all the money thrown at the NHS in recent years there has not been a corresponding significant improvement in quality or delivery of care.

There is no point in throwing pots of money at a system until you know that its processes are correct. To steal Umair's terminology, the DNA of the system has to be right. In the case of the NHS, its not. Which simply results in the money going into the system going to waste. This is not an argument about whether health care should be funded publicly or privately, only in how health care is delivered. The processes required to deliver health care. How its funded is a very small secondary issue that is more philosophical than anything else.

You have to fix the fundamental processes, the DNA, of a system before there is any hope of making improvements. This goes for companies, software or government services. In fact every system. Throwing money does little to do this.

And in the case of health care, to re-write the DNA we have to question the basic principles of health care delivery. Is the concept of Doctors, Nurses and health centres really the best method for delivering health care? Do we need Doctors? What for? Should they be the only ones to do diagnosis? Should health care rely on God-like pronouncements of what is wrong. What about Nurses? Could paramedics be made more useful?

Everything we know about health care needs to be questioned. Only then can we begin to build the framework for the effective delivery of health care.

Tags: Health, Operations, Bubblegeneration

Risk modeling in Financial Markets

Bloomberg has an interesting article exploring how the banks are changing their risk models. Roger Ehrenberg adds some insight to the article. To me the most fundamental question that needs to be asked isn't what is the best model, but can risk even been modelled?

In all the discussion about risk and its modelling, there is always the underlying assumption that the risk can be modelled. I'm not so sure you can really model the risk. Time and again in financial markets past performance has been shown to not be a predictor of future performance (all the managed funds have that explicit on their brochures) and yet the assumption is that past risk can be used to model future risk. See the incongruence?

The market looks to be an indeterminate, chaotic system. Which to me makes the assumption of normal distribution of risk a little suspect. Being an indeterminate system, it may very well be impossible to model risk using the standard statistical methods.

Tags: Risk, Finance, Credit Crisis

EU energy plan aims to stop carbon exporting

The EU has announced its climate change policy. What struck me most is the move to stop the exporting of carbon production to other countries. As I have previously posted this is crucial requirement for carbon trading to actual work in reducing carbon emissions.

Implementing carbon trading without something to address the issue of out-sourcing carbon, the price of goods and services in Europe would have gone up without the beneficial reduction in carbon. As many have pointed out, there is no way of making sure carbon stays on the other side of the planet.

This also changes the dynamics of the up-coming discussions on the next climate change treaty. For one, it does reduce the negotiating strength of the BRIC nations against mandatory caps. It also precedes an alliance of OECD nations which go it alone to implement mandatory emission caps and via the mechanism proposed by the EU in effect force mandatory caps on emissions on the rest of the world as the OECD still make up the bulk of the worlds affluent consumers.

I wonder if this announcement signals the tipping point to worldwide mandatory emissions caps whether BRIC nations want it or not.

Tags: Climate Change

Language and problem solving

In the most recent New Scientist (Vol 197 No 2637) there is an interesting article discussing the issue of language and how it frames problems. The perspective of the article was that English's newtonian way of describing the world failed to frame questions properly for quantum and other similar non-newtonian physics. The article even goes so far to say that the lack of progress in non-newtonian physics is because problems are framed via the language with a newtonian world view.

Does the same problem exist in the world of the internet? While I realise the Internet world is great at creating new words, these are still framed by the overall language. A language that is "newtonian". As Internet shifts to flows and systems as opposed to objects and links, do we need to look at how we frame the discussion via language to open up the problem solving juices of the internet community? New next wave of innovation will be less around nouns towards verbs, the doing rather than the being and yet we still primarily use nouns in discussing the web and its evolution. Should verbs that describe process, systems and flow be the primary descriptors of the next web?

The article describes an example of Montagnais phrase "Hipiskapigoka iagusit". It very, very roughly translates to "singing health", a process, within which a medicine man and sick person exist. However, a dictionary written in 1729 translated into something that emphasised the objects and not the process. The web is shifting to loosely coupled processes as opposed to objects. I wonder whether the discussion of Robert Scoble's recent tiff with Facebook, would have evolved differently if the language emphasised process (say maintaining contacts) as opposed to data (the contacts themselves). The discussion was about who owned what objects (the contact data) rather than what the ins and outs of maintaining contacts. Another example is the current discussion going on about whether data is a commodity or not. Again the language is of objects rather than flow. How would this discussion evolve if it was frame by a language of flow (verbs) as opposed to objects (nouns)?

The same questions can be asked of programming. Everyone expresses the need to ramp up parallel programming to take advantage of the distributed nature of the internet and multi-core processes. However, can any real problem be solve properly while the language used to frame the problem is based on objects rather than flow? Does the conceptual framework that underpins object orientated programming preclude successful problem solving in the parallel world? Yes there are languages that focus specifically on parallel programming but I am also talking about the language used to describe and communicate the problem. These will need to respond to the requirements of a parallel world for people to solve problems and communicate solutions.

A lot of questions asked. I don't have the answers and I expect no one will for a while. It is interesting to step away from objects and consider things from a flow perspective. I even think I need to re-visit my recent post of Data Ecosystems and look at it from the perspective of flow rather than objects

Tags: Data, Language, Programming, Internet, Physics, Data Ecosystems

YouTube on Vodafone

photo
Originally uploaded by Simon Cast

Hmmm...are you hurting Vodafone? Maybe there was value in the iPhone? Trying to play catchup?


Tags: Vodafone, iPhone

How not to force people to unsubscribe (This means you Spock)

Today I received an email from Spock for someone trying to add the company recruitment email to his "Web of Trust". Fine people harvest email address all the time. What annoyed me is that it required two entries of the email address and clicking on a link in an email.

Not good. Made the job of unsubscribing time consuming. And it wasn't like I was a registered and the email was from someone who had found me but rather spam contacts email. Long story short, do not use Spock. If this what the company puts you through just to unsubscribe from contact spam then I hate to think how annoying the service would be if you are a registered user.

Point to all companies. Unsubsribe must be a single action on the part of the user. Double, triple, quadruple actions are a no-no. And it musn't take 10 days to filter through your system. That is a load bullshit. All it means is that you can't be arsed to fix you email marketing system and you are going to try to spam me as much as possible in that 10 days.

Tags: Spock, Email Marketing,, Email

Eclipse, Python & SAGE

Several fair comments on from my previous post on using Eclipse/Python so I think I should elaborate on what I see as problematic with Sage. Bearing in mind that I have used Matlab primarily and I am looking for a reasonably priced math program for non-technical users.

Lets first consider what Matlab and its ilk are. They are IDEs for development mathematical-based programs. Most include interactive UI for doing simple calculations. They also provide a large collection of common numerical computations that the user can string together into a larger program for completing analysis of information. So in all there are three elements: an IDE, a math engine and an interactive environment.

Sage is not a very good IDE (actually, I'll re-state that, it doesn't have an IDE). It strikes me as a good program for doing math but it really falls down without an IDE. Given how iuseful IDEs are for writing programs, this is surprising. Particularly when the program is pushed as an open-source replacement for Matlab et al., which do have useful IDEs.

One commentator asked what I found problematic. Well, you know the first one, No IDE. The second was after downloading SAGE, I found I then had to down VMWare, which I could only get after jumping through hoops at VMWare (not particularly happy about that). Third, the notebook interactive UI in the browser is a neat idea but ultimately, it left me underwhelmed.

Now I freely admit part of the problem was that I was expecting an IDE, with an interactive mode and a wonderful math engine. Unfortunately, that was not what I got but that was how it was marketed specifically "a viable open source alternative to Magma, Maple, Mathematica, and MATLAB". It is not an alternative to those programs while it lacks an IDE. The reason people use Matlab is it is easy to use. I really think this is a case of failing to see the forest for the trees. Matlab et al provide more than simply a math engine.

My suggestion to the SAGE team is to ditch the current UI method and use Eclipse. Build a wonderful math engine that uses the Eclipse to provide both a wonderful IDE and an interactive UI. The advantage for the SAGE team is they get to focus on creating an excellent math engine that is open source, while leveraging the work of other teams making Eclipse the best IDE around. Isn't that one of the key advantages of Open Source?

Short term, make it easy or at least write a very good explanation of how to call the SAGE engine from Eclipse.

Granted, I may not understand what SAGE is for, but when presented with marketing "viable open source alternative to Magma, Maple, Mathematica, and MATLAB" I certainly expect something that matches Matlab, if not exceeds it. SAGE does not achieve this.

Tags: Matlab, Mathematica, Eclipse IDE, Open Source, Sage Math, Python

Matlab Competitor? How about Eclipse & Python

Recently Sage was release to compete against Matlab, Mathematica et al. I had a quick try of it but back out. It quickly became difficult to do much. While I am sure it is very powerful math program, its got a long, long way to go before it offers serious competition to Matlab.

I think a better Matlab-killer is the combination of Eclipse & Python. Eclipse provides the visual IDE of Matlab and Python is an excellent scripting language that can easily replace m.files. All that needs to be done is bundle plotting into Eclipse (something it should have anyway), toss in a large library of numerical and symbolic python functions (complied or C) and you have a program that can successfully compete against Matlab and Mathematica.

Having been essentially using Eclipse and Python this way for the last few days I am convinced it is a very workable solution. Why re-invent the wheel?

Tags: Matlab, Mathematica, Eclipse IDE, Open Source, Sage Math, Python

Web Next & Data Ecosystems

Web Next is not some quantum leap in reality but rather the culmination of several long term trends. Web 1.0 was the translation of real world services (e.g. Amazon) onto the Internet and Web 2.0 is Darwinian evolution of UI and social media tools and technologies. Web Next is exploiting of information to achieve new products and services with no direct analog in the real world. Some will call this Web 3.0 but I prefer the simpler moniker Web Next.

Web Next is about the creation of value not through the control of information but via the creation of synergies and knowledge through combining information and functionality. There already exists the primitive examples in the Web2 world, those such as the map-based mash-ups. Essentially value is derived via the showing a spatial relationship between data. However, these mash-ups are relatively primitive. They rely on a users existing knowledge of the spatial area in question. I personally have no appreciation of the real layout of New York City having never been there. Consequently, the value I gain from viewing or using a mash-up consisting of crime statistics plotted on a map of NYC is less than someone who has visited which will be less than a resident of NYC.

The synergy of information and functionality is created through Data Ecosystems.

Data Ecosystems

A Data Ecosystem is two or more different data sets that when combined with complementary functionality produce multiplicative effect in usefulness. Or put another way, a Data Ecosystem contains more than one source of data (a data set) (e.g. temperatures and rainfall) that can be combined, analysed and processed with the overall Data Ecosystem being more valuable than data or functionality on its own. Importantly, having more than one data set is not sufficient on its own. Rather you need various tools and functions that allow the user to act on the data. An example will help to clarify.

Take an individual piece of data, say a series of temperatures measurements. On its own you can't do much with those temperature measurements but combined with rainfall measures, annual growth rates and a map, those temperature measurements suddenly have a lot of value. Now a farmer can research and plan when to plant his crops or adjust his crop forecasts based on historical growth rates versus temperature and rainfall. To be able to make the forecast of crop tonnage the farmer needs a series of tools that allow him to find correlation factors and extrapolate the growth trends based on rainfall and temperatures. Without those functions having the data is not particularly useful. There is no use in having gobs and gobs of data if there is poor functionality in the Data Ecosystem.

Data Ecosystems highlight a very interesting point about data. One that I find is continually ignored or not understood by most data companies (including web companies). Data on its own has little intrinsic value. Data only has value with what you can do with it and what you can do with it is determined by what other data you have along with the functionality you can apply to the data.

Like a biological ecosystem, a data ecosystem must mesh together. A Data Ecosystem needs to be internally consistent. If a Data Ecosystem is not consistent then it will not generate value for the user. There is no point in trying to create a Data Ecosystem that has rainfall patterns from Australia and crime statistics in New York City. Designers of Data Ecosystems must not design the systems so they become inconsistent. Consistency is crucial. But given human nature I fully expect consistency will be ignored.

"And there's the sign, Ridcully," said the Dean. "You have read it, I assume. You know? The sign which says 'Do not, under any circumstances, open this door'?"
"Of course I've read it," said Ridcully. "Why d'yer think I want it opened?"
"Er...why?" said the Lecturer in Recent Runes.
"To see why they wanted it shut, of course."
-Terry Pratchett, Hogfather

At this point I expect some readers will be thinking that Data Ecosystems is simply the Semantic Web. Data Ecosystems is not the Semantic Web. Semantic Web technologies will be a part of Data Ecosystems, but Semantic Web is neither a precondition for nor sufficient on its own in order to build Data Ecosystems. Semantic Web helps by automating building the relationships between bits of information. In the temperature example above Semantic Web would have provide information such as the lat/long of the measurements, how it was measured, the accuracy of the measurement, the date and times of the measurement etc. This would then allow a computer to match the data automatically with rainfall data from the same location and time and plot together on a map. Semantic Web makes building Data Ecosystems easier and like objects in programming will allow Data Ecosystem platforms to increase the ease the deployment of Data Ecosystems.

Data Ecosystems can also be built of other Data Ecosystems. The output of several Data Ecosystems can be used as the sources for another Data Ecosystem and so on. Each step creating more value by allowing an individual to achieve more. Data Ecosystems will in effect create an L-space

Why are Data Ecosystems Important?

Data Ecosystems are important for one very, very crucial reason. Data Ecosystems allow people to achieve things effectively. Unlike Web 1.0 which was essentially removing transaction costs from existing real-world processes, Data Ecosystems unlock the potential for new services that are impossible in the real world.

Consider a Data Ecosystem based travel service. Such a service will allow you to research a holiday; book all transport, accommodation and activities; create a comprehensive itinerary of the holiday, send alerts at key points along the trip; calculate how much money you'll spend on the holiday; help you automatically tag video, audio and photos from the holiday and create holiday memorabilia from the items you have uploaded. All through a single Data Ecosystem.

And there are hundreds, thousands, millions of probable Data Ecosystems that have no analog in today's web.

How Things are Already Changing

To close out I want to consider something that has been banging its way around the blog-sphere and offline world: the fate of journalism. Without re-hashing the debate you can read Bill Keller's speech with Jeff Jarvis's responses here and here as background.

If everyone is a citizen journalist, then what is the point of professional journalist? A seemingly valid question but one that has the implicit assumption that both are or will be doing the same process. From the perspective of Data Ecosystems the job of a professional journalist becomes very different from a citizen journalist. The citizen journalist is a source of data. They will most likely only provide a very narrow bit of data on any particular story. Put another way, the citizen journalist becomes a source like the news wires.

The professional journalist moves on from being the source of the story to gathering all the disparate bits of information about a story and then assembling into a consistent and cohesive context around the core story. Professional journalists go form being the gate keepers to information to value builders by creating context to stories. The role of a newspaper/media company is to provide or create a Data Ecosystem within which the professional journalist can assemble, create and publish the context to stories. Within Data Ecosystems, professional journalists, news agencies and citizen journalists will co-exist and combine to produce a more valuable service than either would on their own or exists today.

The media world is already going through pain as it is forced to adjust to the realities of an information economy. Data Ecosystems provide a means to effectively adapt to the information economy. But Data Ecosystems are not limited to media. Data Ecosystems will exist right across the information world. In fact they will reach into material world as L-space is linked into materials at the molecular level. This is the true revolution of Data Ecosystems, they facilitate the merger of L-space and Real Space.

Tags: Web Next, Data Ecosystems, Web 3.0, Web Services, Semantic Web, Web 2.0, L-Space

A mandate for change or steady as she goes?

Reading the recent commentary in the Australian newspapers about the results of the recent election, I am struck by how many of the journalists and opinion columns along with a majority of the ALP and unions believe they have been handed a mandate for change.

But has Kevin Rudd* really receive a mandate for change?

Remember that Rudd campaigned on being just as safe as the Howard government. That does not speak to me as a mandate for change but rather a steady as she goes. The Australian population expect that employment will remain at 30+ year lows, that inflation won't get out of hand and in general things will keep ticking over nicely forever. Rudd will need to be extremely wary about making and changes that upset the apple cart. The voters are going to hold him to the being fiscally conservative.

This includes WorkChoices.

What the voters voted for is more of the same but with a spit and polish of the government. They did not vote for radically change.

The advantage is Kevin Rudd does have the personal power having dragged the ALP into the centre and one an eletion to resist the more strident and economically irresponsible ideas of the unions.

* Yes Australian electorate voted for Kevin Rudd and not the ALP.

Update: Paul Sheehan of the SMH has in interesting article that supports my point although he goes into more depth and draws a longer bow than I am willing.

While Google passes USD600 could its market cap be higher?

Google has passed USD600 overnight. Various analysts are predicting higher. Paul Kedrosky has predicted USD1000 by the end of the year. Which at this time is not as far fetched as many think. What interests me is a USD600 per share gives Google a market cap of USD190.28bn, but with a USD29.84 per share provides a market cap of USD280.55bn. Almost USD90bn more in market cap.

This leads to the question. If Google split its stock, how fast would the share price then rise and what would the market cap become? Could it pass Microsoft. Splitting the stock would initial reduce the share price and make more shares available for trading.

My guess is that the increase in share price after the split would be very rapid as many traders increase their existing holding and new traders create a holding. All in all an interesting thought experiment.

Update: Quick thought. Given that stock options are one of the key parts of Google compensation, I would think that as the stock price rises closer to USD1000 it will make these options less attractive for new employees. One way to address the issue would be to split the stock and give more room for faster growth for new employees. Nor would this harm existing employees. In fact it would allow them to realise some of their "wealth" without massively changing their share ownership.

How to be A lister Blogger part XXCXIVX

Quote Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy at least once a quarter in your posts. In context.

The Sustainable Economy and Economies of Scale

In much of the discussion on sustainable economy has been focused around energy and carbon. One aspect I find missing from the debate is how the wider shift to sustainable development will effect the fundamentals of economic development that have been the guiding forces since the time of the industrial revolution.

One key economic concept is Economies of Scale. Essentially, building lots of things in one place in order to produce each individual thing cheaper. One of the key determinates of economies of scale is transport costs. The shift to sustainable economy is going to bring in what is currently an externality (carbon) to the equation that determines the economies of scale. As carbon is priced into transport (and to the price of energy) building widgets in massive factory in China (for example) and shipping it to the rest of the world is going to loose economy.

The reduction in the economies of scale will see two major effects. The first is a shift to more factories building the same product as opposed to one big factory shipping to the world. These smaller factories will serve a particular region. The size of the region that the factory supplies will be determined by transport costs. The second shift is that many economies will see a broadening of the manufacturing base. There is likely to be a growth in both the number of jobs in manufacturing and also the diversity of manufacturing operations.

Not only will carbon transport costs effect the location of factories but so will access to low carbon energy. In effect, countries with good internal and regional transport links that are not carbon intensive and have ready access to low carbon energy will greatly benefit from the shift to a sustainable economy. Which leads to the conclusion that China is likely to see its global dominance of manufacturing eroded if it is unable to reduce the carbon intensiveness of is energy and transport. It is China's self interest to reduce the carbon intensiveness of its economy now.

Google and Apple: Joint bid for 700Mhz?

Rumours are circulating that Apple is going to bid for the 700 Mhz spectrum that the FCC is auctioning off. Various speculations over what it could be used for (iPhone MVNO, nation wide hotspot are possibilities) abound. What interests me more is if Google and Apple partnered to bid nation wide.

A partnership between the two would be hugely disruptive to the existing wireless companies. A Google and Apple partnership would bring together Google's information and infrastructure strengths with Apples consumer hardware and design strengths. A complete mobile office and internet access service based around Google Apps and Apple's iPhone and iPod Touch is a compelling combination.

The iPhone/Touch would provide the device that allows the user to access the cloud using the 700 Mhz spectrum. Google would then provide the cloud based services: push email, storage, applications, search, internet access etc. It would become a highly useful enterprise mobility platform while providing the first true wireless, ubiquitous internet platform.

Tags: Google, Apple, Wireless, 700Mhz

StrategyEye beta is now avaliable

Here at MarketClusters we have just launched StrategyEye. The service is still in beta and any feedback is very welcome.

What is StrategyEye I here asked? Well to quote Nick Gregg, MarketClusters CEO, it is

"a real-time intelligence platform designed to track the explosive changes in the Internet, Media and Telecoms marketplace. The dashboard gives a highly contextual view of M&A, VC and partnership deals globably, all linked to expert blog and news opinion - and our own proprietary analysis"

Its pretty cool for those trying to track deals and the commentary made by bloggers and journalists surrounding the deals. Who is it aimed at? Well anyone with an interest in digital media, telecoms or the internet. We already have a range of clients from small startups to large corporates and even one or two consultancies. Have a look at the client page. I don't feel like name dropping.

But what if you aren't interested in DM? Never fear, we will be adding further sectors with CleanTech a sector high on our list of cool.

If you want to sign up for a trial and/or the newsletter just follow the prompts on the main page.

Tags: Marketclusters, StrategyEye, StrategyWire, CleanTech

Housing and the Debt Pool

Both Australian and the UK are facing a housing bubble with panicy headlines about housing affordability. Fingers are being brazenly pointed at governments and builders. While the actual cause is best described by Ross Gittins of the SMH in his recent article "Housing Crisis: We Did It Ourselves". Summary: greed of current house owners has pushed up the prices.

Various proposals have been made about "fixing" the problem. However, one fact is conveniently ignored. To "fix" the problem, house prices will have to fall. Not really a politicians greatest wish. Releasing more land, re-developing brown sites (particularly in London), reducing the bureaucracy for planning permission, cutting various taxes and changing tax treatment of investments will help the issue. The single biggest problem for politicians is managing the process that will see house prices stall or fall. House prices are invariable driven by demand, if supply meets demand prices won't rise as quickly.

Is that all that can be done? The fixes proposed will do a lot to alleviate the problem in the short to medium term. It will not fix the debt problem that is tied up into the "housing crisis." Instead, we need to look at how debt is managed for consumers. The debt repayments related to buying a house is what causes the stress. Dealing with this requires more than just lowering interest rates.

So how do we deal with the easy debt problem that leads to the payment stress? The total debt any individual needs to be capped based on their cashflow and the interest rates. This includes store cards, car loans, credit cards and all the other methods of debt.

It works by working out a total debt pool of an individual. The individual then gets to choose who and how much debt an individual provider extends to the consumer. The debt pool is calculated from cashflow and the inverse of the interest rate. This way the debt pool enlarges when the interest rate drops and falls when it increases. This will reduce the opportunity for individuals to fall into repayment stress. A buffer between theoretical debt pool and actual available is use to ensure that the individual never progresses beyond the debt pool.

A side effect of this will be that each individual interest rate change will have more effect as not only does it change the repayments an individual has to make it also changes the amount they can borrow.

tags: Housing, Ross Gittins, Debt Management

Perpetual Analytics and policing Social Networks

In what is likely to create a MSM storm, MySpace has deleted profiles of 29,000 convicted sex offenders. As noted by Michael in his post the whole process is complicated by having the data stored in multiple databases. Which will lead louder calls to make on massive DB.

But is one massive DB (and all the problems this may entail) the only effective answer. No, I don't believe so. I think judicious use of perpetual analytics will deliver a more effective solution thatis better at respecting privacy than having one massive DB. The other advantage is that each social network could build on and contribute to the policing of SNS for sex offenders.

tags: Perpetual Analytics, Social Networks, MySpace

Facebook - the next x?

The blogsphere has oscillated between hysteria and backlash against Facebook since the release of the Facebook platform. Some have asked, what is so special about Facebook while others have breathlesssly compared Facebook to Google, Apple & Microsoft.

Now, I personally think the underlying value of Facebook is enormous. However, capturing that value or more accurately realising that value for both the company and users is going to be difficult. More importantly, this will be massively more difficult while people keep talking about Facebook being the next "wunderkin."

Put another way, Facebook is not and never will be Google or Apple or Microsoft or any other wunderkin company. It will be its own wunderkin company that charts a new direction for the industry just as the others have before it. Any punter that talks about Facebook being the next x, will completely and thoroughly miss what Facebook is and will achieve. Do not trust them. These punters are still stuck in the old world and will fail to see the new world.

Truth in advertising - beauty addition

I've wondered for a while whether many beauty magazines and advertisements for beauty products could fall foul of the truth in advertising standards.

The logic is as follows.

Take an image of normal woman. Touch it up and the image is no longer a real representation of the individual. It is no longer true. It is false advertising. The implicit message, particularly of beauty products, is you could look like this if you used the particular product. However, the image is not true. Does this make the advertising untrue?

It would be interesting for such as case to go to Advertising Standards Authority or court.

Tags: Advertising, Policy

The Multi-Touch Revolution

What this video and think about interfaces.

The revolution that the iPhone introduces is not about features and, to a degree, Leopard as well, is around how we interact with information. This is arguer of the coming revolution in IT/internet. The services that win will be the ones that provide the most effective interaction for the user with masses of information.

Remember we are in an age of information. Getting information is not a problem. The problem lies with how we interact with information. How can I, as a user, interact with the information in a way that makes me most effective in achieving my aims, whether it is finding something or manipulating the information.

The multi-touch screen is going to be a huge part of this revolution. Multi-touch opens the door to truly effective manipulation and navigation through complex information environments. That is not to say that the keyboard will die. The keyboard still remains a very effective input device for certain tasks (i.e. word processing). But for other tasks, touch is the way to go. Multi-touch will have more effect on mouse usage as it can directly replace most if not all mouse input functions.

The companies that succeed in this new environment will be ones that make the new input devices and the ones that create software programs or services that most effectively utilise the power of multi-touch. As a thought experiment imagine Google Earth on a large multi-touch screen or Microsoft's Sea Dragon/PhotoSynth combination.

Tags: multitouch, iPhone, UI

Facebook as a market

I'm just reading Fred Wilson's recent post about Facebook. Essentially, Facebook has created a stock market-like entity for web apps. Which validates my point underlying my previous post on Facebook and micro web apps.

Extending the concept of the market and micro web apps logically leads to some interesting conclusions. A stock exchange like market could be created that allows micro web app designers another method for monetising their creation. The market would track some combination of the number of users (number of shares) and the value per user (stock price). The movement in the value of the apps would be fascinating to watch.

I wonder if you could create a Stock Exchange app using the Facebook platform?

Apart from the intellectual interest of the Facebook Stock Exchange, does it have any value? Yes. The exchange offers an interesting way of trialling new applications for possible future investment. If an application within Facebook takes off, this is a reasonable indicator that this application will a good candidate for full blown development. Facebook becomes a rapid prototyping and marketing testing platform for the internet.

Facebook Exchange also offers a Darwinian environment to develop and trial new features for existing Web companies. The features to develop out are the ones that gain widespread tracking amongst a target demographic. This will allow web companies to focus their development resources on features that will be worthwhile to their users.

The developments going on around Facebook is fascinating. Where it will end is unknown, but the ride getting there is going to be fun.

Tags: Fred Wilson, Micro Web Apps, VC, Facebook

Facebook a Platform for Micro-Apps

Just as eBay prompted the rise of the micro-retailers, the Facebook Platform has the potential to prompt the rise of micro-web apps. Facebook Platform provides a range of infrastructure services necessary for these micro-web apps to survive and thrive. Social networking, network distribution and hosting are all provided.

Just like the micro-retailers on eBay it is only with the environment of Facebook can these micro-web apps exist.

For search startups the real barrier to entry is the index

I was drawing up a brief document for my CEO yesterday around search, the developing technologies and the startups in the space. What caught my attention was the number of starts calling themselves "Google-Killers". It took me a while to put my finger on it but I just didn't agree no matter how cool/ground breaking/esoteric their technology was.

Why don't I see these companies such as Powerset or Hakia as "google-killers"? Index. The simple fact is that unless the company has an index that is significant percentage of the Google or Yahoo or Microsoft search index's they can't compete. Early on the size of the web was such that a new search engine could easily develop a useable index. Now it is orders of magnitude harder to not only develop the index but also make it fast, reliable and generally useful.

There is a way to mitigate this barrier to entry and that is to pick a vertical and index that. Indexing a vertical is a much easier that trying to index usable portion of the internet. Given the nature of the technologies that Powerset, Hakia et al are deploying I think health (which is also relatively open and new) would be good fit for them.

[I had included Yedda as a Google-Killer but as Yaniv Golan pointed out in the comments, Yedda is along the lines of Yahoo Answers with knowledge ranking.]

Tags: Search, Google, Startups, Powerset, Yedda, Hakia

A human experience

I have found it fascinating to watch the every widening ripples that the Kathy Sierra et al saga has unleashed.  Tom O'reilly has just posted the basics of a code of conduct, which continues the expanding ripples.



Even more fascinating is how entirely human the whole issue is.  How entirely human the responses and counter responses, the alliances and friendships are.  All in all, I found it demonstrates one very, very important fact: geeks, techs are as irrational and human as the rest of the population.  They are as likely to get angry, to be mean as anyone.



What concerns me most is the seeming wide acceptance of meaness not only in Tech based blogs but also in political blogs as well, even across the whole blogsphere.  The acceptance of meaness hidden behind freedom of speech. Does this not de-value the concept and importance of freedom of speech when it becomes something to prop up an individuals own pettiness and anger? If I remember my history lessons correctly, freedom of speech is about disagreeing with government.  It was never there to protect some one from the consequences of every thing they say.  Something a long history of court decisions has upheld.



The web and internet has grown since the early days.  The norms that arose in those days hung together as a majority of the users belong to the same community and with that community came limits on behaviour.  Now that the majority of users do not come from the same community the norms of behaviour to a greater or less extent do not have the weight or power they use to.  The internet has descended into a "Lord of the Flies".

Blogsphere Civil War

"And no practical definition of freedom would be complete without the freedom to take the consequences. Indeed, it is the freedom upon which all the other are based."
- Lord Vetinari

Background: Blogsphere Civil War

At what point do the cries for Freedom of Speech, Liberty become hollow when we stop taking the consequences of our actions?

We like our freedom, so long as we don't have to accept any unpleasant consequences. We want to be able to say what we want, without accepting condemnation by others. We want the ability to do what we want, without accepting responsibility when our actions hurt other people.

If you build a site like mean kids or write a blog, you have to accept the consequences of that action.

True freedom is the freedom to take the consequences. Strength of character comes from accepting the consequences of your actions.

Kathy Sierra, Anonymity, Internet

Liability in the age of targeted ads

Every so often you here about the latest advertising based scam. An ad is located somewhere in magazine or newspaper and this leads the un-suspecting off in a merry dance that sees them loose some or all their life savings.

Generally the service (magazine, newspaper etc) are not held liable for this type of scam. Which is fair enough because the service is not targeting ads at specific people.

But...

What happens when a service is predicated (Blyk) on delivering very target ads to a specific demographic delivers advertising that is the start point of a scam? It could be very easily argued that the scam would not have been successful without the targeting provided by the service. Which of course opens the service to liability.

Liability for scams is something that does need to be considered with highly targeted advertising. Particularly, where the targeting focuses on populations known to be (more) prone to duping by scams.

Tag: Blky, Mobiles, Targeted Advertising

Rant: Playing Music on a Mobile Speaker Phone

I've been meaning to say something for a while but today on the bus into work was the last straw.

What idiotic engineer or marketeer decided that it would be cool to allow people play music stored on a mobile on it's speaker? The only time that is going to happen is when the person is in a crowded bus/train/building where is going to piss people off.

Now, to those people who do this. STOP. I don't care what music you like but I don't want to have to listen to it. I have my own favourite music and I don't want to have to listen to yours because you are too selfish to not use headphones. You are intruding on my personal space.

Strangely enough it always seems to be teenagers who insist on playing music on the speaker. Some people would say I could simply ask them to turn it down. Yes I could, BUT, they should never have turned it on in the first place. Why can't people think of those around them?

The qantum shift in Climate Change

Tony Blair has said there has been a quantum shift in climate change in the US and there is now a possibility of a deal as long as India, China and other similar emerging economies join in (China and India are 2nd and 4th worst emitters respectively). Yet recent comments by an Indian minister seems to think they should still be allowed to emit at their current levels.

Which kind of leaves us in deadlock. The US is not going to accept caps without the major emerging economies also accepting caps. Neither side seems to be willing to shift. Is there anything that break the deadlock?

There is.

The US, Europe and other interested countries sign a treaty to create caps and a global emissions trading scheme. But included in the treaty is an agreed method to calculate the carbon cost of goods and services. This serves as a standard and is used across the economy. Companies (whether in the signatory countries or not) can receive an audit to show they are below the standard. This allows them to purchase less carbon credits as their goods and services fall below the standard (or even sell carbon credits).

Now to deal to recalcitrant countries. All goods and services receive a carbon cost whether they are produced/provided by the signatory countries or not. Here is the key aspect. The goods and services need only to be consumed in the signatory countries. Companies wanting to sell goods and services within signatory countries would have to purchase carbon credits.

The majority of the exports from the emerging countries go to be consumed in the developed world. Without this methodology, carbon caps will only see the carbon production transfered from the developed world to the developing world. Nothing is gained. By requiring carbon credits at point of consumption forces the producing companies to take the lead in reducing their carbon emmissions as they now have an economic incentive to do so.

A side benefit of this methodology is that it will turn the externality of carbon emission generated in the transport of products (currently not included) into an internality. This will allow the price of the good to better reflect the true cost of production.

Tags: climate change

The news is out- MarketClusters Receives USD3m in expansion funding

MarketClusters (the company I work for) has just raised USD3m in expansion funding. The press release is here. AlarmClock talks about it here. In summary we are continuing our expansion of StrategWire platform. In addition to on-going development of new features we will expanding the platform's coverage to Clean Technology market.

Tags: MarketClusters, StrategyWire, enterprise2.0

Transport in Sydney

I've just returned from Christmas in Australia. Starkest difference between London and Sydney was how hard it is to get around Sydney by public transport. Not having a car in Sydney is a significant obstacle to enjoying Sydney.

This only serves to highlight how (relatively) good London's public transport network is. This is not to say that there isn't room for improvement, there certainly is. But the cost of improving London transport is dwarfed by what Sydney needs, nay must, spend to get a decent public transport network.

Unfortunetly for Sydney, public transport is the single biggest hurdle to further development, increased tourism and maintaining its status as a liveable city (which is already rapid falling).

Yahoo!

Wired has an excellent story about Yahoo and its performance over the last few years. Several bloggers have already commented on the story (Michael Parekh and Brad Feld). My take: I'm not really surprised about anything in the article. Yahoo has been rudderless for at least the last year.

Terry Semel has to go. His performance is simply not good enough.

With recent coup in Fiji, the troubles in the Solomon Islands and riots in Tonga, you have to wonder what is happening. Over the last few years, the south pacific island nations have seemingly lurched from one crisis to another and there does not seem to be an end in sight. The question is, how is this going to be solved?

The answer, I think, is a Pacific Island commonwealth that includes Australia and New Zealand.

Put it in RSS

Something that has been annoying me for a while is the lack of companies and industry bodies that don't put their news and press releases in an RSS feed. Or if they do require you to register. This post goes out to them.

I will say this slowly. Put. Your. Press Releases. Into. A. Feed. And make it public available. The purpose (and please correct me if I am wrong) of a press release is to make an announcement that reaches as many people as possible. The very fact you do not put your press releases in a feed restricts the number of people who can see.

Nor do I wont to register and receive emails. I just want an RSS feed with your press releases. There is absolutely no benefit for me to register for your press releases. Registering is only useful when the user gets a service out of it. Press releases are not a service.

It is even more nonsensical for industry bodies not to put press releases in a RSS feed. The whole point on an industry body is to act as advocate and communicate with society. Making it difficult for me to get hold of press releases is not the way to do it. I do not want to have to visit your site to check. I do not want to have to work at it. Nor do I want to register to get an email. I get enough already.

I'll say it again. Put your press releases in a RSS feed.

Tags: RSS, Marketing, PR

Paying people for UGC

In a recent post Umair wrote a reply to a question that had come up in a recent Beers & Innovations night. Summary is when will people be paid for "user generated content." I made a point in the comments about how different people get value from services in different ways i.e. monetary payment is not the only form of received value. This is all well and good but many people will still want to be paid.

The biggest hurdle is that transferring small sums of money is prohibitively expensive for the size of the funds transferred. Widespread payment for UGC will not occur until someone cracks problem of providing transfer of funds between parties with a cost approaching zero.

There are several possible methods for doing it. The first would be for a company such as Google to create a financial transfer company and absorb transfer fees the banks impose as a cost of doing business. This is a big and costly option that runs up against (massive) regulatory problems.

The second would be to create a frequent flyer style points system that people can accumulate and then use to for discounts at stores or to purchase gift certificates. This option is probably one that would work well. The "frequent generator" (FG) points would be tied to an identity. For example, I could state (just as Amex holds my "loyalty points") that all my FG points would be held by Google whom attaches my FG points to my Google identity. I can then go to various stores and reclaim the points for discounts, gift certificates etc.

The third option is to essentially create an "internal market" where parties with an identity can transfer, at zero cost, funds. For this to work a provider, lets say Google, would create relationships with the various users of UGC. These users would deposit an opening balance to Google (Google holds this in escrow). When a user uploads some UGC to the site, which then makes some money, the service "transfers" money to the user by saying to Google "user x receives y amount". Google records against the users identity that they have received x without directly transferring the money. The costs are only paid if the user moves money to their real world bank account. Paypal on steroids if you like.

My guess is that a frequent-flyer like system is probably the best option. There is less regulatory overhead, capital and technical requirements. The other major attraction of FG points is that everyone understands frequent flyer systems and the redemption of points. GAYME companies are the obvious candidates to create these systems (they have identities and relations with the users and UGC companies) and I can see this being the next battleground for the hearts and minds of internet users.

Tags: UGC, Web Services

UK Age Discrimation Laws - The death knell of target job boards?

As of 1 Oct 2006 the UK's age discrimination law (Employment Equality (Age) Regulations 2006) came into effect. I am now reading through a "guide" on these laws and, I am, to say the least astounded. The UK government has taken a massive sledge hammer to crack a small nut and then missed.

What strikes me as most interesting is the possibility that target job boards could possible be ruled illegal under the new laws. From the guide is the following quote:

"If you limit your recruitment to university ‘milk rounds’ only, you may
find that this is indirect age discrimination as this practice would
severely restrict the chances of someone over say, 25 applying for
your vacancies."

or

"Example: An advertisement placed only in a magazine aimed at
young people may indirectly discriminate against older people
because they are less likely to subscribe to the magazine and
therefore less likely to find out about the vacancy and apply."

Now the obvious first shot will be on services such as Milkround. However, I can see the same logic being extended to any target job board. For example the TechCrunch, Joel on Software and 37Signals job boards are seen by an audience that is by and large of a particular age group. This could be be seen as indirect discrimination.

Perhaps the biggest question is the liability of non-UK companies for job advertisements placed on the Internet? The obvious answer is don't be silly, but if a non-UK advertises a job that can be done by telecommuting, lawyers could argue that the advertisements do fall under the UK laws.

The law of unintended consequences raises its head again.

Also puts a damper on the outcome of News International's purchase of Milkround.

Tags: Web Services

A brilliant but simple idea - SlideShare

The best ideas always are aren't they?

Today, Uzanto launched a second service called SlideShare. Essentially, it allows the user to take a already generated powerpoint or openoffice slide pack (doesn't seem to support Keynote yet although a help note says to export to PPT). The user can then share these slide packs with other users and embed them on other sites.



The embed is a flash movie making usable on a majority of social networking sites and viewable in most if not all browsers. The service seems to use Amazon's S3 service.

Just as YouTube has many similar competitors, I expect other presentation services to popup with a similar system. It will be interesting to see who wins. I expect SlideShare has a good start with a working service that is easily used that is compatible with a social networks and a majority of the web.

Tags: SlideShare, Web Services, Social Networks

Defence in Depth in the world of Single Sign-on

Recent expansion of our network has led me to revist the concept of Defence in Depth and its relation to security. I am a big beliver in Defence in Depth. To the point all the computers at work run with software firewalls in addition to the hardware firewall. But that is not what the point of this post.

Rather, it is the concept of Defence in Depth in web services. The question arises of how many web service companies use Defence in Depth. Given the recent security failures my guess is not many at all. Cruel experience will change that I am sure. But this does lead to the problem of the social engineering attack.

I am wary of single sign-on as it seeminly destroys the usefulness of Defence in Depth. One sign-on and the cracker will then have access to all of a targets services. As web services usually have weaker protection from attacks that come from inside the service it opens up a whole world of hurt. I wonder if Defence in Depth is considered by Identity 2.0 crowd.

An interesting problem.


Tags: Identity2.0, Web Services

Social Networks and Attention

I was at dinner with Howard Rheingold organised at the very last moment by Ian Forrester. It was a very good evening thoroughly enjoyed. But this post isn't about the actual dinner but a comment made by one of the attendees.

Discussion had turned to "The Daily Show" and "Colbert Report." Then the comment was made "I watch 'The Daily Show' but not the 'Colbert Report' as I am sure with my social network that if there is something really funny on the 'Colbert Report', I will find out about it" or words to that effect.

The comment shows an interesting trend in managing attention. People are using their social networks to expand the amount of attention they have. By relying on different parts of your social network to pay attention for interesting items effectively expands the amount of attention a user has.

What is the impact of this? I'm not sure as I haven't had the chance to fully think the implications through. Top of the head is that it will complicate the monetisation of attention. It also indicates that making very general social networks profitable will not be easy. The better route is adding social networking features around a series of more focused websites. Shades of the old Geocites and AngelFire?

The other side of the coin is that this is an interesting adaptation by an individual to managing information overload.

Tags:Attention, Social Networks, Geek Dinners

Where have I been?

It has been a long time since I last posted. Several months in fact. Where have I been? Working. Of course this begs the question of what I have I been working that has stopped me blogging.

StrategyWire is what has stopped me blogging. I have been working hard getting the system up to scratch for the initial release, which has now come and gone. We (MarketClusters) are lucky to be in a position that we had paying clients with the initial release. Of course this creates the (good) problem of having to push further and faster with our development of the platform.

What is StrategyWire? Good question. StrategyWire is an online intelligence platform that organised news, blog posts, statistics etc. using a graphical map to allow users to easily understand their market. In many ways this will be the most interesting period because we will be building on a strong foundation adding in the whizz bang features. Of course we are looking to hire more developers (and analysts).

StrategyWire is part of the growing number of Enterprise 2.0 applications that are starting to appear.

Tags:Enterprise2.0, StrategyWire

Australian Last Mile Broadband as a Utility

Debate has been raging (as much as debates rage in Australia) about who is going to pay for the next generation of broadband network and how they are going to pay for it.  Telstra (the incumbent) has given the ultimatum that it will not build out a FTTN network without regulatory relief (translated: we want to charge monopolistic prices to competitors to access the network).  Their reasoning is the requirement to achieving a realistic return on investment.

Last week Telstra's main competitors tossed a curve ball by offering to jointly fund the build out of a FTTN network for Australia in exchange for access.  Which of course nails Telstra's ROI argument.

What I find most interesting in this debate (many do expect that the offer as proposed will get off the ground) is the airing of different methods to developing out next generation broadband networks.  The common element is the recognition that the base network is a utility.  The proposal for joint funding recognises this.

While it is debateable that joint funding will work (it may) it opens up the debate to other methods of funding.   One that needs consideration is the to place the last mile network (exchange to doorstep) into a tradeable asset trust.  The trust would own the network and service providers would purchase access from the trust.  The advantage of the trust is that it separates network provision from the service provision (a utility) and provides a level playing field for service providers.  The network asset trust would also provide a long term investment vehicle for pension and super funds.

Last mile access is a utility and the joint funding proposal is a clear indication of this fact.  Last mile access as a utility casts the net neutrality debate a completely different light and negates many of the arguments put forward by the US bells.      


Technorati Tags: Telstra, Broadband, Optus, Utility, Net Neutrality, FTTN

Technorati Tags: Telstra, Broadband, Optus, Utility, Net Neutrality, FTTN

Microsoft's Choice

Google and Apple have shifted the competitive landscape leaving Microsoft fighting a defensive battle on a battlefield not of its choosing.  Microsoft faces the dilemena of continuing to compete on their competitors terms or disrupt the competitive landscape.

The first choice will lead to the slow but inexorable decline in revenue and profitability of Microsoft.  The second choice is very risky because the outcome is unknown and will involve the internal disruption of Microsoft.   Two stark choices but only one can halt the decline of Microsoft.

So what can Microsoft do if it chooses to go with the second option?  Microsoft needs to swap the Win32 kernal for the Linux or BSD and focus on the UI and productivity aspects of the OS.  Similar to Apple's strategy with OS X.

By using a Linux or BSD kernal Microsoft benefits in several ways.  Fundamental architectural decisions made a  long time ago are placing constraints on how secure the WinOS can be made.   Security is becoming increasingly important and is now effecting choices on OS.  A Linux/BSD kernal provides the fundamental security necessary to build a safe OS.  Using a Linux/BSD kernal will allow Microsoft to concentrate on the UI and productivity aspects of the OS which fits very neatly into the creation of a seamless computing experience that Microsoft is pursuing.  It reduces OS maintence and development costs.  Microsoft essentially outsources the bug fixing and OS maintence to the Linux or BSD community.   Microsoft would still need to participate but would not need to devote so much resources on housekeeping but can focus on innovation.

Using a Linux or BSD kernal will allow Microsoft to increase margin on the OS product while reducing the cost to the consumer.  A benefit that Microsoft's hardware partners will appreciate.

Those are the direct internal effects of this move.  But there will also be disruptive market effects of a kernal switch, which can be argued to be far more important to Microsoft.

• The sea anchor of being an OS company that is stopping Microsoft competing effectively in the new market. 
  
• It will in on fell swoop take the wind out of most of the anti-trust suits that Microsoft currently faces.
• The OS versus OS argument looses bight as it becomes an argument about Unix flavours.
• Security and productivity reasons for swapping OSes (ie from Win to OSX or Linux) will be mutted if not completely sunk.

But most importantly, the strategy of switching kernal will allow Microsoft to blur the boundaries between the centre and edge of the network.  Which directly effects the competiviness and value of competitors like Apple and Google.

The question remains of what kernal would Microsoft use.  Technically there isn't much difference between Linux or BSD kernals.  I expect that Microsoft will go with the Linux kernal for the following reasons:

1. Linux already has a greater amount of public mindshare and it would allow Microsoft to reclaim those organisations that have already move to Linux Desktops,
2. Linux developer community is larger (and more vocal) than the BSD community, and
3. Steve Jobs choose BSD.

Microsoft using the Linux kernal has significant benefits for the company ranging from costs to more focused development.  Perhaps more importantly it will represent a major disruption of the status quo.  Innovative disruption not only comes from new technology but also from adopting new strategies.


Technorati Tags: Microsoft, Disruption, Strategy, Linux, BSD, Apple, Google, OS

The Undiscovered Pearl of the Blacksea

I need a break and as I like visiting new places I decided to go to Odessa in Ukraine. I am glad I did. This post is to give you the reader the merest taste of Odessa. Odessa is not a particularly stunning city in the way that Paris or Sydney are. But Odessa has its own charm. As a friend put it: "Odessa is just a large village." Some of the buildings are crumbling others are new. The buildings in the centre of the city are a wonderful meadly of everything great in Italian architecture. Another way to think of it is that the buildings are Italian Architect's ideal of Italian architecture.



Another distinct feature of the city is the huge number of sculptures and statues dotted around the city. Many are beautiful and well worth a look.



While I was there during the winter, it struck me wandering around Odessa that it would be a lovely city to visit during the summer. Particularly with the beaches a 5 minutes walk from the centre of the city (where the decent hotels are :) ). A traveller can spend the day lazing around on the beaches and then hit the many good pubs or clubs at night. After dinner at one of the resturants that serve great food. Of course there are a number of museums to satisfy intellectual guilt before heading back to the beach and niteclubs.

But and there is always a but, travel to Odessa is not for the package holiday maker. Odessa (at tis time) lacks the developed tourism infrastructure that Malaga or Ibiza have. Odessa is really for the independent traveller at this time or those looking for a holiday that is slightly different but still has niteclubs and beaches.

If you do make it to Odessa, drop in to Mick O'Neils Irish Pub. A good pub, a great atmosphere, good food and drink. O'Neils also doubles as the local for the expatriate community of Odessa (all six of them :). Speaking of which I would like to thank Steven, Debbie, Mark and Alan for their selfless inclusion of a traveller into their circle if only for a short period. Special thanks to Mark for taking the time to show me some of Odessa.

I enjoyed my trip to Odessa. I hope I can find the time to return in summer. I do recommend a visit with the proviso that is still rough and not for your average package tourist. But if you want a holiday that is different, not overly touristic then a trip to Odessa could be what you are looking for.

Doing a Hugh in Italian

A recent The Economist (Feb 25 - Mar 3) had an article in it about the challenges facing the Italian textile and footware industry. The Economist offers up the standed freee market cures such as consolidation and investment in capital equipment. One solution that The Economist does not mention is the creation of a global microbrand or to put it another way: the Italian textile and footware industry needs to do a Hugh (you could say doing an English Cut but doing a Hugh sounds better.)

The Italian textile and footware industry simply can't compete in mass market production. If it is not China it will be Vietnam or Burma or Cambodia or Africa. There will always be someone with cheaper labour. Trying to compete directly with the cheap labour is not going to work. Instead the Italian textile industry needs to build on their unique characteristics. The Italian textile and footware industry has a history and a reputation that the cheap labour countries cannot replicate. Taking advantage of their history and reputation is how the Italian companies are going to be able to compete.

Italian textile and footware companies need to create global microbrands that use the reputation and history as a foundation. The global microbrands are important as they create the demand for the time of the craftsman. Time is the only scarcity. But scarcity has no intrinsict value. Value only comes from the interaction of demand and scarcity. Here lies the success of English Cut (doing a Hugh). Through creating a global microbrand English Cut created demand for the time of the craftsman.

There is no reason why Italian textile and footware companies cannot create their own global microbrands to sell the time of italian mastercraftsman. They need to do a Hugh.

Links:
Hugh Macleod's The Hughtrain Manifesto

Technorati Tags: Hugh Macleod, Global Microbrand