Failure of Filters

The title from this post is taken from the keynote that Clay Shirky delivered at the NY Web2.0 Expo in September 2008. The premise of the keynote is that the “information overload” we are facing is not a problem but a fact (one that has been around since Gutenberg and his movable type press) and what we are seeing now is the collapse of the traditional filters that mediated the information overload.

The existing filters for information were founded in the difficulty of moving information over distance. The various communications technologies of the 20th Century have steadily eroded the tyranny of distance. The web completed the destruction of distance filters by removing all concept of spatial distance for information.
Our sense of privacy is again bounded up in the hassle in moving information over distance. This physical distance is the basis for the whole concept of privacy. The closer we are to other people the less privacy we expect. We found that to be a reasonable rule of thumb as those closest to us (community, family, friends) are likely to spatially close to us. We only now need privacy safeguards because the rule of thumb no longer applies – spatial distance is meaningless for information now.

Information overload and privacy issues are a rooted in us expecting that filters based on spatial distance to continue working in a world where information has no spatial component. Any filters built with this expectation don’t work. Instead we have to create a new framework for filters that don’t rely on spatial distance.

By borrowing ideas from science we can create a framework that doesn’t rely on spatial distance. The framework is based on data half-life, data permeability and data potential. Data half-life is the measure of how long the bit of data takes to lose half of its relevancy/ importance. Data permeability is a measure of how hard it is for data to move over a period of time – think fluid moving through a filter. Data potential is the initial potential for the data to move – think potential energy in Newtonian dynamics.

The interaction of these three parameters determines how far and how quickly information can travel within an environment where spatial distance has no meaning. An analogy will help illustrate how the parameters behave together to filter information.

Let’s say we have some information – death of the chief of a village. The village has good roads and the news is to be sent by horse. This information will go far as it important (chief of a village), it is easy for the information to move on the road and the horse is quick. If, however, the death is not the chief then the news won’t travel as far it is not as important. It is the interaction between the data half-life (how important the person is), the data permeability (how easy it is to move the information) and data potential (how fast the information can move) which determines how far the information will travel.

Changing the parameters creates a varied set of filters that determines how far and how fast information will defuse. Each connection has a level of data permeability with information coming in assigned a data half-life and a data potential. The information only passes the filter when the data half-life and data potential are enough to overcome the data permeability.

To illustrate consider changing your relationship status in Facebook. If someone changes their status from relationship to single they don’t necessarily want the information to spread quickly through their “facebook friends” as their friends will include work colleagues and friends of friends only met once. Instead each of their connections should have different data permeability and depending on information (data half-life and data potential) it will show up in some of the connections news feeds right away, some in days, some in weeks and others never at all.

There is no single way to create and calculate data half-life, data potential and data permeability. Various developers will come up with their own methods. Some of which will work and others that won’t. Hopefully further down the track we will see a standardisation on calculating the parameters based on accepted criteria for each type of information – personal, communications, knowledge etc.

Tags: Filters, Information Overload, Privacy, Clay Shirky

Technology and moral responsibility

"Now I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds"
-J. Robert Oppenheimer (from Bhagavad Gita Krishna)

A recent conversation with a friend has got me thinking about the oft used phrase "technology is amoral". Usually used to justify why research or a technology should be pursued when there are foreseeable abuses of the research/technology.

I've used the phrase myself without really thinking what it means. Until now.

The phrase isn't a justification but rather a cop out. A cop out for the researcher or technologist involved from thinking the ramifications of the research or technology and ultimately taking responsibility for possible misuses of the technology or research.

Every researcher and technologist must consider the moral ramifications of what they are doing. It is not straight-jacket of right or wrong. But rather a thought experiment to understand the ramifications of the research or technology being pursued. The aim is to answer questions of what are the moral ramifications of the research or technology? What could happen if things went wrong? What could happen if it was used immorally? Do the benefits out weight the risks?

Being unable to answer those questions about research or technology being pursued is a gross act of negligence. To often justified by the phrase "technology is amoral".

The phrase should really be "technology is amoral, but technologists aren't". As scientists and technologists we must take moral responsibility to how our research and technology is used.

tags: Technology, Morality

Can Silicon Valley Save the World?

(ed. this post is inspired by a recent trip to Namibia)

Can Silicon Valley save the world?

No.

Silicon Valley has become divorced from the realities of a vast majority of people's lives. There is simply no sense of what is important to people's lives. Silicon Valley has become about technology for technology's sake. And technologies value is only realised when it is applied to solve a real problem. Speeding up how quickly you can print solar cells by 2% is not a problem. How to make it easy for rural farmers in Namibia use solar power is. Human/donkey powered harvesting machine that does not require power other than that of human/donkey sweat is a real solution to increasing the productivity of small african farms.

Umair Haque and Robert Scoble have both pointed to the malaise within Silicon Valley. Umair even set out a challenge to Silicon Valley to solve the real problems. I have serious doubts whether Silicon Valley can answer the challenge. Being unable to answer the "call to arms" will have serious effect on the influence of Silicon Valley. The money is in solving real problems and real pain. Another twitter is not going to make money.

My pessimism comes from the ivory tower aspect to Silicon Valley, the disconnectedness. If you are blind to real problems and real plain how are you going to solve them? How are you going to develop the technology that solves the problems? To often engineers and VCs get dazzeled by the technology and not how the technology solves the problem. Quickly the technology is pushed forwarded with little consideration to how the development of the technology will actually solve the problem it was designed to solve. Soon the technology no longer solves the problem but has become the end in itself.

Technology only has value when it solves a problem. It might be a materpiece of engineering but unless it solves a problem it is worthless.

It is possible to reverse this illness. The cure is simple. Travel. By travel I don't mean going to conferences in far off places. By travel I mean get out and see the countries your are visiting. Get off the beaten track and mix with the locals. Go backpacking. Traveling is one of the few ways where you bump up against the problems, where you can have the opportunity to see people's pains first hand. Documentaries are a poor shadow of real travel.

It is fair to ask what are real problems. Here's a (very) short list:

• How do you increase the productivity of small farms without chemicals or expensive fuel? (hint: human powered mechanics)
• How do you make it easy to install solar power? (hint: corragated iron)
• How do you keep mobile phones charged cheaply when there is no mains and no solar chargers? (hint: hand crank radio)

Solving these problems would make a huge difference. Solving problems like this is independent of where the problem lies. These are problems (even if masked) across the world.

tags: Umair Haque, Robert Scoble, Silicon Valley

Pulling out of recession

Most of the developed economies are facing a slow down if not a recession. Mark Cuban has described his method for pulling an economy out of recession. I broadly agree with his idea but I think that with an addition it address the biggest issues facing startups.

Startups (and small business as well) face two major hurdles or barriers to entry. The first is regulatory and the second is capital. Mark Cuban's plan address the regulatory barrier to entry and some of the capital issues (not paying taxes improves a companies cashflow). But it only goes so far. Not paying taxes is moot point if you don't have any revenue to support yourself.

To address the capital barrier, governments should implement a HELP-style business loan scheme. In this case the government would provide an initial loan that covers a single person's wage for a year. The loan could be renewed for a 1 year extension. The idea is that the load allows a small company to meet salary for initial employees during the launch phase when little to no revenue is available and other sources of funding are not useful.

The loan is then paid back through the tax system. The scheme would have several limits such as being limited to the average yearly wage and a company would only be allowed to ever have 5 employees use the scheme. Individuals would also need to be limited in the number of these loans that could be taken out within a time period (say once in a 5 year period).

The scheme is designed to allow people to take the plunge and spend that all important first year to get of the ground. It is very similar in intent to Ycombinator fund.

With Mark Cuban's plan addressing the regulatory burden faced by startups and small business the loan scheme addressing the initial capital requirements, people will find it easier to start a business and get it through that all important first year.

Economy, Mark Cuban, Finance, Policy

Intersection of the web and tangible objects (manufacturing-as-a-service)

MIT's Technology Review have an interesting article examining the rise of web services that allow users to design and make objects via the web. These services have the potential to disrupt traditional manufacturing. While at an early stage its useful to consider what disruption these services could lead to.

This disruption potential comes from two different causes. The first is the rise of micro-businesses around manufactured products (I am excluding already existing craft companies which simply use the web to sell their products). One example company would allow users to find and order fittings such as taps and facets that are no longer being made by the original manufacturer. The company creates and ships the taps and facets on demand to the user. Think printing-on-demand but for products.

Manufacturing based web services open the long tail of manufactured products. Suddenly, manufactured products never really stop being made just like books now never really go out of print with print-on-demand services from Amazon et al.

The other cause of the disruption is the way these web services change the economics of manufacturing and how this ties into increasing conciousness of energy/carbon cost of manufactured products. Why buy simple products like plates, pots, pans etc. that are made in China and shipped half-way around the world when you can purchase the same products at roughly the same price that is shipped from someone down the road?

Carbon concerns will change the economics of manufacturing by making smaller factories closer to large markets more economical than large centeralised factories. Web services based around manufacturing will further erode the economics of large scale factories by removing the need for companies to purchase or rent expensive manufacturing machines. These companies are the first of manufacturing-as-a-service.

Manufacturing-as-a-service removes the equipment and capital barrier to entry for new product companies. These companies can focus on product design and building the community around the product and leave the operation of the manufacturing hardware to manufacturing-as-a-service guys.

There will be a range of responses to manufacturing-as-a-service. Some manufacturers and factories will ignore it only to be over taken by the tide. Others will embrace it and will aim to become the Amazon Web Services of manufacturing-as-a-service. What the response will be is largely going to be determined by the DNA of the company.

Manufacturing-as-a-Service, Web Applications, Trends

The iPhone 2.0 is NOT a mobile phone

One of the big concerns I have with the analysis of the mobile phone (for example Om's round up here) is the implicit assumption the iPhone 2.0 is a mobile phone.

It is not.

The iPhone 2.0 is a mobile computing platform. Why do you think the keynote spent so much time looking at the Apps?

Its the mobile computing platform is the game changer. As a straight phone (even smartphone) the iPhone has great usability but is only so-so in terms of extra features (as many a blogger will tell ad nauseum). But as a mobile computing platform nothing compares.

More importantly, Apple is repeating the iTunes/iPod strategy of building a seamless end-to-end system. In this case it is a seamless end-to-end mobile computing platform. One that includes development, hardware and distribution of the applications.

Apple is pursuing an edge strategy that re-defines the general idea of mobile towards the definition used by Tim O'Reilly in his recent Web 2.0 keynote in San Francisco, 2008. It drives innovation to the edge and upturns the existing industry.

iPhone 2.0 is NOT a mobile phone. It is a mobile computing platform.

Tags: iPhone, mobile phone, mobile computing

The Social Network has little Value in a World of Flow

Fred Wilson recently wrote a post about how the flow of data is important versus the data itself. Primarily in response to the ongoing bushfire in the blogsphere about Facebook and Google Friend Connect and the larger context of data portability.

The conceptual point of flow versus data is important one to highlight.

It is very easy to confuse the two. To an extent this is an artifact of our language which emphasises objects (nouns) over flow (verbs). But it is also influenced by trying to use an existing frame-of-reference to discuss a new frame-of-reference that is only just beginning to come into focus. This is always going to make everything more difficult.

The web is moving into uncharted territory. Up to now we have been dealing with the conversion of existing real-world into an online equivalent. Now the web has reached the point that it is moving beyond the confines of being a real-world analogy. This is creating vast new opportunities, few of which are known to us now. Data portability discussion exits within this new framework.

To make headway understanding this new framework, we need to converse using language that properly describes this new framework. The language of flow will help us frame problems and hold conversations that enable solutions and new opportunities.

In Wither Social Networks, Arise Communities I pointed out that social networks are glorified contact books. A better way to look at social networks is that the merely describe a connection between two people. They are the pipes, wave-guides, tubes along which guide the flow. What happens at the end points is not part of the social network.

In addition to the guides, we have process points. The process points are where points along a flow something happens to the flow. Whether its received (such as email), or processed (such as Wesabe). A process point is not necessarily where the flow stops, merely where it undergoes some sort of processing.

Facebook's aim is to become the primary process point. They know (or suspect) that merely having a description of a flow network is not enough. They have to be a processing point, but here is their dilemma: Facebook was never designed with being a processing point in mind, merely a description of a flow network. So their strategy is to try and control of the description of flow networks by restricting access while they shift to being a processing point, Facebook Connect being an example.

Bear in mind that the flow network description has little intrinsic value. It is the flows along the network where the value lies. In this Robert Scoble is wrong. It is not the flow network where the value lies but flow along the guides that is important.

So is Facebook right or is Google right? How about neither? Facebook's move is entirely about trying provide themselves with time to become a processing point and less of a pure flow network. Google's aim is to get access to the flow network in order to get access to the processing points. Google looses out if it doesn't know about the processing points. Neither are taking the positions they are merely out of moral indignation. I do find Google's behaviour less obnoxious than Facebook as Google's move is about access where as Facebook's is about control. Not really surprising given Facebook's past behaviour and in the words Umair, evilness.

Ultimately, it is a meaningless argument. The web is shifting so fast that both companies actions will soon be lost in the momentum in the move to flow. The flow based web even looks like it will overtake the Data Portability movement. Rendering the broader discussion irrelevant as well.

Tags: Social Networks, Facebook, Data Portability, Google, Web Next, Web 2.0, Fred Wilson, Robert Scoble, Umair Haque, Web Services

Wither Social Networks, Arise Communities

A community is an assemblage of people around a common interest. What Hugh MacLeod calls a social object. Social Networks, like Facebook, are glorified contact books. And as Facebook is finding out, people get stroppy when you get between them and their contact books.

A community, on the other hand, behaves differently. The members of a community are there because of the shared interest or bond, the social object. Consider the rise of communities around particular diseases as highlighted in this week’s NewScientist (vol 198, issue 2656). These communities are generating a wealth of data about these diseases that would otherwise be expensive or impossible to obtain. Communities tend to generate data around the particular shared interest beyond simply demographics that you get in a Social Network.

The data is hugely important. As Tim O’Reilly is fond of saying, “data inside” is the new “Intel Inside” (between time point 2.15 to 3:20 in the presentation). The value of web companies is entirely determined by the data they can aggregate and turn into new knowledge. Communities generate large amounts of data by harnessing the network effect. As each member adds more data around the shared interest this creates a positive feedback loop encouraging more people to add more data and so on in a virtuous cycle. A good example of this principle in action is the company Wesabe (also discussed by Tim O’Reilly in his keynote at 2008 Web2.0 Expo).

Social Networks don’t have this positive feedback loop that generates great swathes of data. While they do have network effects this is merely increasing the size social network by members rather than adding large amounts of data. We are even seeing indications now of limits to how far network effects work in maintaining growth of membership. The amount of data in social networks is relatively limited and most of this information is limited to who knows who and simple demographic data.

Social advertising is the “next big thing” in advertising. However, achieving this on a social network has not been easy. An outcome that is not surprising. The effectiveness of advertising comes down to two things: attention and intent. Attention being what is the person doing at the moment. Intent being why are they doing what they are doing at this time. The more closely you can determine the attention and intent of the user the better the advertising can be made to be of interest to the user.

Social Networks do not offer great data to determine attention and intent. Just because you are a 46 year-old climate researcher, does that determine why you are looking for a holiday? An advertiser could assume you are looking for a holiday for yourself but there is no evidence for this. Nor can a social network really say whether you are looking for holiday in the first place. There is little data to indicate attention and intent. Communities on the other hand do offer good data for determining attention and intent. Consider the climate researcher. He joins a community around travel and holidays and asks the question of the community “what is a good holiday as a birthday present for my 16 year old daughter?” Now we know attention (searching for a holiday) and intent (as a present for his 16 year old daughter). Having this data allows the advertiser to very accurately target with information about holidays suitable for a 16-year old girl.

People like being part of a community. We are tribal at heart. A social network is a mathematical abstraction that merely indicates a connection. The tribe will always win over the maths. Communities will win over social networks.

Tags: Tim O'Reilly, Social Networks, Hugh Macleod, Social Object, Community, Data Inside, Attention and Intent, Facebook, Wesabe

The Best Regulation is Information

With the recent upheavals in the world financial markets there has already been calls to regulate. Arguably these calls are not wrong. The question, rather than should we regulate, is how and what do we regulate?

The financial crisis is one of market failure due to the lack of accurate and timely information about risk. The regulation needs to focus on correcting the issue of the markets providing accurate and timely information about risk.

The regulation needs to ensure that everyone involved in the market has knowledge of the real risk that various instruments and securities have. This will require the regulation of the ratings agencies as they failed to properly provide information on the risk involved in various securities. Or the rating of securities is handled by an independent body charged only with ensuring the risk of a security is accurately measured and information provided to the market.

The second bit of information is where the risk is. Here the accounting rules need to be change to ensure that risk cannot be shifted off-balance sheet so the risk "disappears". Essentially, if there is control and/or liability those risks need to show up on the balance sheet.

Mobilty, Facebook, Twitter and Social Cohesion

The Economist has an interesting article about mobility and its effect on society. In particular one anecdote of a plumber and a sociologist had a strong resonance.

"Richard Ling, a sociologist at Telenor, the largest Norwegian telephone company, and author of “New Tech, New Ties: How Mobile Communication Is Reshaping Social Cohesion”, was standing on his porch in Oslo one day, saying farewell to a few guests, when a plumber walked around the corner, talking on his mobile phone to what appeared to be his wife. Mr Ling, who had a leak in the kitchen, was expecting him. But the plumber took Mr Ling and his guests aback by walking right past them and into the house, where he took off his shoes and headed for the kitchen, chattering into his handset all the while."

The article goes on to talk about weak and strong social interactions. In this case the plumbers weak social interaction with the sociologist was overcome by the stronger interaction between the plumber and his wife. Or it could easily be the girl at the checkout counter chatting away to someone on their mobile phone while barely paying attention to the task of paying for their shopping. The anecdotes are there and very strong.

Now that strong social interactions are rarely limited by distance, they are easily overwhelming weak social interactions. But is this a problem? I think so. The weak social interactions are often with random people in every day life - bus drivers, commuters, shop assistants, doctors, police, people on the street, customers in a cafe - rather than with people we've selected as being a part of our "tribe". They are unlikely to be similar to us and this variety of social interaction helps us be less insular. In reading the article I was strongly reminded of one of my favourite quotes from Terry Pratchett.

"Individuals aren’t naturally paid-up members of the human race, except biologically. They need to be bounced around by the Brownian motion of society, which is a mechanism by which human beings constantly remind one another that they are... well....human beings."

The dominance of the stronger ties reduces the "Brownian" motion needed to make us human. This loss is what is disturbing about the "mobility" society. We are rapidly shutting out random acts of chance, of serendipity. Nor is it simply mobile phones. Social Networks such as Facebook also produce the same effect. Anything that promotes strong social interactions at the expense of weak ones are culpable.

Services such as Twitter and FriendFeed go towards promoting weak social interactions as a tweeter will not always "know" or have a previous strong social interaction with a follower. I do wonder, however, whether these virtual weak social interactions will again come to dominate over the face-to-face weak social interactions of every day lives.

Banning mobile phones, Facebook and Twitter is not an answer. These services and devices serve a strong purpose of facilitating communication and strengthening social ties. What we need to be aware of is the here and now. To recognise that at certain points the here and now of weak social interactions out weights strong social interactions.

Tags: Social Interactions, Mobile, The Economist, Facebook, Twitter, FriendFeed

Amazon to buy a CDN?

Amazon is beefing up its AWS offerings. In the end making the menu of services much more enticing. Amazon's has reached a point that a whole startup can be cheaply and easily hosted with robust and reliable services. But that isn't the point of the post.

With S3 video startup's can store and transmit their video. Which if you take off like YouTube quickly becomes costly (for both Amazon and the startup). So how to address this issue? One method would be to use a CDN like system to distribute content to the edge. Amazon has several options 1) build its own, 2) buy an existing CDN or 3) partner with CDNs.

The structure of Amazon's computation infrastructure (particularly with the Zoning) could already allow for CDN like behaviour. The question is whether this is enough. I expect that it would require more development to get a proper CDN like behaviour working.

The second option buy an existing CDN would allow Amazon to avoid having to complicate S3 storage to give it behaviour like a CDN. Rather Amazon would like S3 to the CDN's existing infrastructure. Here I think Akamai is probably the best target for purchase. Allthough Limelight Networks is a possibility as well.

The third option partnerting with CDNs would provide AWS customers with the most choice. They get to choose which CDN they use and AWS makes the link between the S3 and the CDN very straight forward.

Dealing with the video/rich content distribution to the masses is something that Amazon is going to have to work on. It will be interesting to see the finial solution Amazon chooses to pursue.

Tags: Amazon, Amazon Web Services, CDN, Akamai, Limelight Networks

Google App Engine is final leg of the strategy to disrupt social networks

With the announcement of Google App Engine and the resulting symphony (or cacophony) of conversation a lot has been said about cloud computing and Amazon's Web Services. For all the conversation not much has looked at the Facebook angel in detail.

Google App Engine strikes me less as a competitor to Amazon Web Services and more as the finial piece in the puzzle for creating a web-spanning social network. Google App Engine provides a place for applications to be built and hosted external to any social network. Coupled with Google's APIs for a users social network (the contact API), an identity mechanism (Google Accounts) and the OpenSocial APIs, everything that can be done in Facebook or any other social network can now be done by any application without having to be internal to any social network.

It is an innovative way of dealing with the issues of social networks by explicitly turning the web into a giant social network without walls.

Of course this will mean the very act of surfing could see you have a sheep tossed at you!

Tags: Google, Facebook, Google App Engine, Amazon,Amazon Web Services, Social Network, OpenSocial

Web2 Finance, Mobiles and Two Factor Authentication

A friend has just had problems with fraud and it got me thinking about two factor authentication and how web2 finance sites such as Mint.com and Wesabe can play a role in making online fraud harder.

The Web2 Financial sites could Email and sms the individual whenever a payment or transaction is done to confirm the transaction before it is committed. Essentially the mobile phone (or email) becomes the second factor of authentication. No need to carry around a separate dongle or bit of hardware in order to make a transaction.

Implementation of this would require the companies to partner with the banks or online payment processors to get the realtime-ness need for the second means of authentication to be effective.

Banks and the payment processors could also do this as well and probably should. I would like to be able to receive an SMS to authorise ATM transactions or when paying by card at a shop prior to being the money being handed over. Not the ultimate solution to card cloning and pin card issues but it would certainly put a crimp in that type of fraud.

Web2 financial services have an advantage over the banks, credit cards and payment processors for the following reasons:

• Online banking sites suck - badly
• People often have many bank accounts, credit cards and setting them all up is likely to miss something. As the financial sites already aggregate this information they can act as single point for passing transactions through to authenticate
• Many online payment processors are merchant focused and never have a relationship with user so can't really send an SMS or email
• The financial sites are focused on the user while banks, credit cards and payment processors lack this focus
  

In the end the more services that offer this type of two factor authentication the better for reducing fraud. It isn't going to make it go away (phone and wallet stolen etc) but it can be reduced without having to roll out great numbers of bits of hardware.

Tags: Mint.com, Wesabe, Two Factor Authentication, Mobile, Fraud, Online Payments, Web2

Transparency and Morality in Business

Ross Gittins has an interesting article about the importance or requirement for moral values for a market to function properly. What struck me as interesting was the idea that markets function better when participants are able to judge the actions of other participants against social standards. This jives with what Umair Haque has written about numerous times around the DNA of businesses and the edge economy.

In previous posts, I've talked about the use of transparency of businesses to improve the DNA or the behaviour of businesses. The concept of being able to judge participants against social standards for honesty, trustworthiness etc. provide a strong foundation for judging what information participants need to provide about themselves.

By focusing on the information that allows judgments to be made about a company's behaviour meeting moral standards, we can avoid being inundated with information that is irrelevant and frankly unhelpful in creating better businesses and markets. Businesses are only as amoral as we allow them to be and there is no reason why a business has to amoral.

Tags: Transparency, Finance, Ross Gittins, Policy

iPhone Reverberations

It is now several days pass the announcement of Apple’s iPhone software roadmap. We are now firmly far enough away from the reality distortion field we can take stock of what it means and the possible ramifications. John Doerr certainly thinks that the iPhone is the next coming. And I am inclined to agree but I shall come back to my reasoning later on in the post.

The presentation came in two parts; the enterprise features and the SDK. I’ll consider each as both have different effects.

RIM

The enterprise features are aimed at the heart of RIM. Not only has Apple targeted the BlackBerry handsets but RIM’s whole push technology revenue. It is a classic pincer strategy and strangely enough not one that I’ve seen discussed much. By using ActiveSync Apple removes the intermediate steps of the RIM server and NOC. This will be cheaper for enterprises wanting to deploy push email and potentially more reliable, an issue that RIM has struggled with in the last 6 months.

Apple has created a viable alternative to RIM push email technology that is going to have a lower total cost of ownership. The software update is not going to be deployed until June 2008 so I expect that the update will include many other improvements to the iPhone that will make it even harder for RIM. I am interested in whether Apple will work with Google and Yahoo to bring push to the companies’ webmail. In particular push integration of Google Apps would almost make the iPhone a no-brainer for small to medium enterprises.

RIM has six months in which to respond and come up with a strategy to counter Apple. Steady as she goes is not a viable long term strategy. One possible idea is to give the RIM server software away for free/open source it and focus on providing maintenance contracts to enterprises looking for them. But it is not all plain sailing for RIM (and all the other handset manufacturers) as Apple not only announced the enterprise features but more importantly announced the SDK.

SDK

The enterprise features were about selling more iPhones and increasing access to the enterprise. The SDK is about changing the world. The SDK unlocks the power of the iPhone and turns it into a comprehensive mobile computing platform. John Doerr stated it was the third platform and I agree. Does it replace the other two platforms? Not at all. Instead it complements the other two platforms to create ubiquitous computing. Now we have the mobile platform with the computing platform and the cloud platform.

The SDK provides a little something for everyone. For enterprises it allows mobile versions of enterprise applications (ERP, CRM, SCM etc). More importantly the native applications will support offline processing allowing users to continue using the applications when not in range of large of large bandwidth connections. It also allows the applications to send only the necessary data (sync) between the central application and the iPhone version increasing the essential mobility of the platform.

For games developers it provides a mobile gaming console that with the mult-touch interface and 3D accelerometer and high resolution screen offers new gaming styles and game play. The Wii is a demonstration of how a change in interacting with a game opens up new game play. Perhaps the largest stumbling block will be Apple’s historical indifference to games on their platforms. Take a logical step further the iPhone could become a very interesting Wii-like controller for Mac based games. Imagine playing id’s Rage using the iPhone to steer and fire.

Application developers will be able to create applications and mobile versions of their applications that address specific computing needs when mobile. These applications will often be compliments of desktop and web applications. The inclusion of SQLite will do a lot to reduce the issues surrounding EDGE and intermittent connection.

In Conclusion

Like a butterfly flapping their wings only to create a storm, the true impact of the iPhone mobile computing platform is unpredictable. Like Jason said, this will play out over the next two decades. Not having “social” mentioned is hardly a reason to doubt the impact of the iPhone as Fred Wilson does. The point is the SDK is about the how of mobile computing not the what. The what is left up to the developers and users.

All that can be said for sure is how we think about computing and its involvement in our lives is going to radically change just as the PC platform and the Internet Platform changed computing before.

Tags: iPhone, iPhone SDK, Mobile Computing, Apple, RIM

Improving Transparency to Improve DNA (Umair's type)

The FT has an article today on Institute of Credit Management releasing tables on the payment performance of listed companies. This again follows the idea of using transparency to reform and improve the performance of businesses.

But it is not enough to have someone comb through annual reports to find this information. In the world of the web, this type of information should be provided in XML form on every companies website. Companies will scream that it is a bureaucratic hurdle but that isn't true. There will be an initial pain as companies adjust their systems to publish this information but then that only creates opportunities for new business to streamline the process.

Publishing information as XML is a trivial exercise and cannot be considered a viable argument. What most companies are really objecting to is the changes that this transparency will require them to make. To borrow Umair is terminology, the transparency will necesscitate a change to businesses DNA. Those that don't change will die.

tags: FT, Disruption, Business, Transparency

When Humans are Removed

Ars Technica has an interesting report on a recent music industry conference. What struck me as interesting was an exec of a music label on a panel justifying their existence of labels by the work of "finding" music. To quote:

"anyone who has spent an hour or a day listening to demos understands the labels' place in the food chain"

The iLike CEO pointed out that this is no longer the case. That a label only need to look for musicians with 50,000 friends on MySpace.

What is interesting is how MySpace, iLike et al have turned finding new music from a costly human based activity to a software program. I'm not sure many people in the industry (whether the labels or companies like iLike) realise what is happening. The best analog is what Google did with advertising as Chris Anderson pointed out in his recent article in Wired:

"When Google turned advertising into a software application, a classic services business formerly based on human economics (things get more expensive each year) switched to software economics (things get cheaper)"

Did Google realise what would happen by turning advertising in a software application? Probably not. Just as Google unleashed value that was otherwise tied up as costs, so to will a software application(s) for finding new music unleash value otherwise tied up as costs. Music is going to shift back from being a package product to being an experience.

Tags: freenomics, Google, disruption, economics, iLike, chris+anderson, music

Use a Time Slot Method for Train Travel

News comes today about First Great Western agreeing to a remedial plan to, well, operate a dependable train service. Rail franchises create a government granted monopoly on a rail line in exchange for meeting certain conditions. It is how the UK government decide to privatise rail travel.

I think rail franchises are the wrong way to organise the delivery of train services. Instead rail lines should be divided into time slots that a company bid for. Obviously lucrative spots would be bid higher and less lucrative spots would be less expensive. The idea is to create system like landing slots at airports. This would allow various train companies to compete on the same line which would drive prices lower and also increase the number of services.

Part of rail franchises sometimes includes revamping railway stations. This could still be done using with time slots by directing the money from the auction of the slots into track and station improvements and/or also charge a "standing fee" for each train.

Monopolies are a bad way to deliver a service. Competition will do more to improve train service particularly if the slots are auction for periods of between 1 to 5 years and any single company cannot by two (three?) consecutive slots so that a user has a choice of waiting for the next train.

The main hurdle to slot base method is the management of arrivals. Systems will need to be in place for dealing with late trains - perhaps by moving them off into holding points until a slot is free.

Tags: Rail Franchise, Rail, UK, Transport

Google's achillies heel - Customer Service

Google's rise and rise has created a continued air breathless wonder that can the company do no wrong? Google smacks the ball well and even if their products don't always rocket to a six they rarely have a dot ball. Microhoo! is a reactive move against Google's strength.

But is that really necessary. Time and again customer service keeps coming back to haunt Google. Take Christopher Dawson's attempts to reactive his Gmail account. The action was neither prompt nor informative as to what happened. Nor was Google forth coming about providing basic information on the Christopher's account usage. Information provided by many other service providers.

So is this Google's Achillies heel? It could be. Customer service is going to be more and more important as Google's products move beyond mainstream. So too will be letting users access their own service and usage information. Of course both issues are fixable. The question is will Google put the effort into backing up their services with proper conversation with their users and decent customer service or will the continue to use a man behind a curtin and hope no one pulls the curtin back?

Tags: Google, Gmail

Using transparency to regulate business

For a while I've regarded the use of transparency as a better way to regulate than brute force of law. In an interesting piece on lateral thinking in economics Ross Gittins, discusses the work of Dr Guren of Lateral Economics.

Many of the ideas proposed by Dr. Guren are not really new or innovative, if you've been following economics and the open movement. Taxing "bads" as opposed to "goods" are known as Pigovian Taxes. What I did find interesting was Dr. Guren's idea around improving health & safety in the workplace by this method:

Most workers care about workplace safety, but typically lack information about it when applying for a job. Yet the workers' compensation premiums paid by firms provide a good proxy for their past occupational health and safety performance.

We should publish them, Dr Gruen says, and require that existing and prospective employees are provided with information on how they compare with economy-wide and industry-wide average performance.

I already think that salaries should be published by each company. Publishing the salaries and benefits across the organisation, will promote competition between companies for labour. One of the key problems with the labour market has moved beyond flexibility, to information asymmetry. A real market can't exist with this asymmetry whether a market is flexible or not.

But the idea of publishing H&S premiums has got me wondering what other internal information should be published to make companies more transparent and so reduce the amount of regulation and enforcement action needed in the economy?

Off the top of my head I can think of:

• Number of harassment claims filed
• Amount of energy KWh used by the company

The more simple and available the information the easier it is to counter arguments about cost and burden. The use of open information would have a profound effect on the economy and the regulation of business.

Tags: Open Source, Policy